Non-stationary dynamics in Pacific salmon productivity

1 Overview

This document contains additional figures exploring the characteristics of the spawner-recruitment relationships for 289 Pacific salmon stocks located throughout the Northeast Pacific region.

1.1 Map of timeseries

## Scale on map varies by more than 10%, scale bar may be inaccurate

1.2 States/Provinces

1.3 Ocean basins

1.4 Series length

2 Stock Characteristics

Here we include an overview of parameters estimated for each stock fit from the aforementioned models.

2.1 Productivity - log(alpha)

Log(\(\alpha\)) estimated from the autocorrelated Ricker function (;model 2) for 267 Pacific salmon stocks. The light histogram is the entire posterior distribution among all stocks, while the dark histogram in the foreground indicates the distribution of median estimates among the 267 stocks:

Summary of the median estimate of log(\(\alpha\)) among all stocks:

##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max. 
## -0.1045  0.9017  1.2223  1.2975  1.6031  3.0521

Log(\(\alpha\)) estimated from the autocorrelated Ricker function (model 2) broken down by species:

2.2 Capacity - Smax

\(Smax\) (1/beta) estimated from the simple Ricker function (model 2) for 267 Pacific salmon stocks:

Smax (1/beta) estimated from the simple Ricker function (model 1) broken down by species:

2.3 Sigma

\(\sigma\) (residual deviance) estimated from the simple Ricker function (model 1) for 267 Pacific salmon stocks:

##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max. 
##  0.1358  0.5878  0.7798  0.8257  0.9993  2.2526

\(\sigma\) (residual deviance) broken down by species:

2.4 Autocorrelation (Rho)

\(\rho\), autocorrelation coefficient for residuals from the Ricker function (model 2) for 267 Pacific salmon stocks:

\(\rho\), autocorrelation broken down by species:

3 Productivity trends

3.1 All stocks

Time-varying productivity trajectories for each stock, with a 5-year moving average and 95% credible intervals around the average.

3.1.1 Productivity

3.1.1.1 ocean region

3.1.1.2 state

3.1.2 Scaled Productivity

3.1.2.1 ocean region

3.1.2.2 state

3.1.3 Umsy

3.1.3.1 ocean region

3.1.3.2 state

3.1.4 Scaled Umsy

3.1.4.1 ocean region

3.1.4.2 state

3.1.5 Change in productivity

##     Min.  1st Qu.   Median     Mean  3rd Qu.     Max. 
## -0.80143 -0.31288 -0.06307 -0.04300  0.12618  3.15715

3.1.6 Change in productivity

3.2 Chinook

3.2.1 Productivity

3.2.1.1 ocean region

3.2.1.2 state

3.2.2 Scaled Productivity

3.2.2.1 ocean region

3.2.2.2 state

3.2.3 Umsy

3.2.3.1 ocean region

3.2.3.2 state

3.2.4 Scaled Umsy

3.2.4.1 ocean region

3.2.4.2 state

3.2.5 Change in productivity

##      Min.   1st Qu.    Median      Mean   3rd Qu.      Max. 
## -0.795219 -0.378621 -0.077780 -0.007804  0.093506  3.157146

3.2.6 Change in Umsy

3.3 Chum

3.3.1 Productivity

3.3.1.1 ocean region

3.3.1.2 state

3.3.2 Scaled Productivity

3.3.2.1 ocean region

3.3.2.2 state

3.3.3 Umsy

3.3.3.1 ocean region

3.3.3.2 state

3.3.4 Scaled Umsy

3.3.4.1 ocean region

3.3.4.2 state

3.3.5 Change in productivity

##     Min.  1st Qu.   Median     Mean  3rd Qu.     Max. 
## -0.78137 -0.32174 -0.13552 -0.11846  0.01853  1.21475

3.3.6 Change in Umsy

3.4 Coho

3.4.1 Productivity

3.4.1.1 ocean region

3.4.1.2 state

3.4.2 Scaled Productivity

3.4.2.1 ocean region

3.4.2.2 state

3.4.3 Umsy

3.4.3.1 ocean region

3.4.3.2 state

3.4.4 Scaled Umsy

3.4.4.1 ocean region

3.4.4.2 state

3.4.5 Change in productivity

##     Min.  1st Qu.   Median     Mean  3rd Qu.     Max. 
## -0.47752 -0.21501 -0.05939 -0.08336  0.04565  0.25315

3.4.6 Change in Umsy

3.5 Pink

3.5.1 Productivity

3.5.1.1 ocean region

3.5.1.2 state

3.5.2 Scaled Productivity

3.5.2.1 ocean region

3.5.2.2 state

3.5.3 Umsy

3.5.3.1 ocean region

3.5.3.2 state

3.5.4 Scaled Umsy

3.5.4.1 ocean region

3.5.4.2 state

3.5.5 Change in productivity

##     Min.  1st Qu.   Median     Mean  3rd Qu.     Max. 
## -0.55077 -0.11488  0.01175  0.09989  0.25150  2.32889

3.5.6 Change in Umsy

3.6 Sockeye

3.6.1 Productivity

3.6.1.1 ocean region

3.6.1.2 state

3.6.2 Scaled Productivity

3.6.2.1 ocean region

3.6.2.2 state

3.6.3 Umsy

3.6.3.1 ocean region

3.6.3.2 state

3.6.4 Scaled Umsy

3.6.4.1 ocean region

3.6.4.2 state

3.6.5 Change in productivity

##     Min.  1st Qu.   Median     Mean  3rd Qu.     Max. 
## -0.80143 -0.48847 -0.18327 -0.15860  0.04777  0.65018

3.6.6 Change in Umsy